Fraser Valley Residential Real Estate
December 2022
MIKE HARRISON* PRINCIPAL, DEVELOPMENT LAND SALES
*Mike Harrison Personal Real Estate Corporation
Data sourced from Fraser Valley Real Estate Board
What the residential market is doing and how it’s impacting the land market
Key Take-Aways from the December Statistics
While the December market data from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board shows month-over-month changes largely consistent with what is historically the slowest month of the year, there are interesting trends emerging as the market continues to soften and regain balance.
Highlights from the December statistics include:
- The detached home market continues to experience a more severe correction than the attached market. Detached home sales made up only 37% of total sales. Historically detached and attached homes share a more even split of total sales.
- The detached home Benchmark Price decrease was smaller in December than November, indicating a deceleration. Benchmark prices fell for townhomes and condos as well, with condos showing the largest decrease of 2.6%.
- Sale price as a percent of list price for detached homes fell again, reaching a level we haven’t seen since 2008. Townhomes and condos are holding closer to 10-year averages.
- Supply of listings is still historically low with new listings down 47-64% from last month, causing total active listings for December to reach only 79% of the 10-year average.
How the Fraser Valley land market is reacting
Before the industry slowed down for the winter holidays, the first half of December showed an increase in land acquisition activity in the Fraser Valley and a continued positive shift in sentiment. It’s largely a cautious approach among buyers, but with a sense that the worst is likely behind us, it’s rare to find someone not willing to put pen to paper as long as the offer contains reasonable due diligence timing. Confidence grows further still for acquisitions with a completion in 2024 or beyond – opportunities which are becoming available again in small quantities.
Land values are slowly easing off but remain sticky as sellers hold out hope the market will rebound and bring them prices from the peak. The condo land market maintains the most strength in pricing as the end product market sees success in well-located projects.
There’s optimism the lending environment for land will loosen up in the coming months, but for now, it remains the topic of conversation in structuring land deals as it’s both the biggest hurdle for some buyers and a competitive advantage for others. Understandably so, as secondary or private lender rates at 12-14% have tripled the finance expense line item in many developer’s proformas.
A snapshot of Key Metrics
December 2022
Detached homes
the leading indicator
Home sales in the Fraser Valley
New and active listings in the Fraser Valley
Listings over time
10 YEARS OF NEW AND ACTIVE LISTINGS
Listings over time
10 YEARS OF NEW AND ACTIVE LISTINGS
HPI benchmark prices
For more information, please contact
Mike Harrison*
Principal, Development Land Sales
604 626 9547
*Mike Harrison Personal Real Estate Corporation