Fraser Valley Residential Real Estate

December 2022


MIKE HARRISON* PRINCIPAL, DEVELOPMENT LAND SALES

*Mike Harrison Personal Real Estate Corporation

Data sourced from Fraser Valley Real Estate Board

What the residential market is doing and how it’s impacting the land market

Key Take-Aways from the December Statistics

While the December market data from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board shows month-over-month changes largely consistent with what is historically the slowest month of the year, there are interesting trends emerging as the market continues to soften and regain balance.

Highlights from the December statistics include:

  • The detached home market continues to experience a more severe correction than the attached market. Detached home sales made up only 37% of total sales. Historically detached and attached homes share a more even split of total sales.
  • The detached home Benchmark Price decrease was smaller in December than November, indicating a deceleration. Benchmark prices fell for townhomes and condos as well, with condos showing the largest decrease of 2.6%.
  • Sale price as a percent of list price for detached homes fell again, reaching a level we haven’t seen since 2008. Townhomes and condos are holding closer to 10-year averages.
  • Supply of listings is still historically low with new listings down 47-64% from last month, causing total active listings for December to reach only 79% of the 10-year average.

How the Fraser Valley land market is reacting

Before the industry slowed down for the winter holidays, the first half of December showed an increase in land acquisition activity in the Fraser Valley and a continued positive shift in sentiment. It’s largely a cautious approach among buyers, but with a sense that the worst is likely behind us, it’s rare to find someone not willing to put pen to paper as long as the offer contains reasonable due diligence timing. Confidence grows further still for acquisitions with a completion in 2024 or beyond – opportunities which are becoming available again in small quantities.

Land values are slowly easing off but remain sticky as sellers hold out hope the market will rebound and bring them prices from the peak. The condo land market maintains the most strength in pricing as the end product market sees success in well-located projects.

There’s optimism the lending environment for land will loosen up in the coming months, but for now, it remains the topic of conversation in structuring land deals as it’s both the biggest hurdle for some buyers and a competitive advantage for others. Understandably so, as secondary or private lender rates at 12-14% have tripled the finance expense line item in many developer’s proformas.

A snapshot of Key Metrics

December 2022

Detached homes

the leading indicator

Home sales in the Fraser Valley

New and active listings in the Fraser Valley

Listings over time

10 YEARS OF NEW AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

Listings over time

10 YEARS OF NEW AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

HPI benchmark prices

For more information, please contact

Mike Harrison*

Principal, Development Land Sales

604 626 9547

mike.harrison@avisonyoung.com

*Mike Harrison Personal Real Estate Corporation

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© 2023 Avison Young. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources that we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Services, LP (“Avison Young”)